Powertrain Scenarios 2030
#1 Batteries as the new normal
The ongoing cost degression curves for lithium-ion-based storage technologies have led to a significant drop in the purchase and operating costs of battery electric vehicles.
The turnaround in consumer behavior, unexpected for many, began when lithium-ion batteries with further reduced cost that last millions of kilometers hit the market.
The result interrupted the market for new cars with internal combustion engines completely. The awaited cost degression of e-fuel production did not occur due to the high primary energy demand and the lack of imports, which means that the operating costs of ICEV in 2030 are significantly higher than for BEV and FCEV. Since most buyers prefer the cheaper and cleaner alternatives, the range of new ICEV on offer has been limited in particular to vehicles for hobbyists and motor sport.
Car manufacturers therefore discontinued their activities in the field of FCEVs at the beginning of the decade.
Europeans’ mobility habits have changed only slightly despite the change in the powertrains – they use both shared and individual owned passenger cars.
Because of the fundamental changes – which many perceived too late – suppliers and OEMs are confronted with a serious change in product demand and the value chain.
Moreover, what happens if, despite latest government incentives and cost degression, users just do not want to buy battery electric cars?
Find out in our next episode of Powertrain Scenarios 2030+ when another realistic scenario comes into play.