Powertrain Scenarios 2030
#4 Update 2020
Demand-driven evolution rather than revolution?
Various shared mobility solutions have been on the market for years. Up to now their market share in motorized individual transport has been small. Read in our latest episode of European Powertrain Scenarios 2030+ how the year 2030 could look like when the common mindset shifts away from private transport towards efficient shared mobility services accompanied by a massive increase in the price of CO2.
The European economy is flourishing.
The growing economy favors investment and thus creates a competitive environment with a high level of innovation in the field of mobility solutions.
Efficiency and sustainable mobility have become a top priority for more and more people, thus contributing to the further development of the mobility landscape.
In addition to shared transportation solutions, other alternatives like providers for micro mobility entered the city centers. This gives users a wide range of different mobility services according to their individual needs. Generally, both forms of transport profitably coexist.
Due to the extensive range of solutions, city centers are almost free from private individual traffic.
Shared mobility services have become established primarily in the cities and are supplemented by private transport in suburban areas. This follows extensive measures limiting the attractiveness of individual transport in cities. In rural areas, however, no business model for shared mobility services has been able to achieve a breakthrough. As a result, residents in rural areas still use their private cars.
Besides the changes in the area of shared mobility, the powertrain mix has slightly changed as a result of the further developed mindset.
The battery-electric vehicle has become the primary solution for cities and suburban areas with meanwhile sufficient range for the latter case. It is used both for individual transport and in the shared mobility sector. The broad expansion of charging points (mainly private in suburban areas and public in cities) and the reduction of charging times have supported the customer-oriented development of battery-electric cars. The low operating costs are also a further purchasing argument for them.
In 2030, vehicles with internal combustion engines are of minor importance for individual transport and are only used for long-distance journeys. Here the internal combustion engine has proven to be the only alternative.
Neither electric nor hydrogen-powered vehicles were able to equalize the advantages of a combustion engine in such use-cases.
The clear advantages are not only the range, but also the existing infrastructure and refueling time. The use of eFuels is a necessity to be competitive in the calculation of tank-to-wheel emissions, since the alternative would be a complete replacement of all vehicles. Due to the small quantities of imported eFuels, fuel costs have significantly risen compared to 2020. Still, for many costumers, the disadvantageous operating costs of the internal combustion engine vehicles are offset by the advantages of convenient long-distance travel.
In this scenario, hydrogen-powered vehicles could not gain significant market share. Cost-sensitive costumers prefer battery-electric cars due to their higher efficiency and less operating costs, while users with need for higher range tend to buy internal combustion engine vehicles, as the hydrogen supply infrastructure is not developed adequately to be competitive. Hydrogen powertrains are expected to become widespread before the 2040s, since a well-to-wheel legislation has been passed. This will facilitate market access with a focus on heavy duty vehicles.
Ultimately, the framework conditions mentioned above, such as the measures to limit individual traffic and the resulting expansion of shared mobility, strict CO2-pricing and a flourishing economy, are leading to a transformation in mobility behavior with lower environmental impact and a decrease in private car ownership.
To what degree will shared mobility services become popular in the future? We invite you to comment on this article and discuss with us!
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In the next episode of Powertrain Scenarios 2030+ we describe the isolation of nations with the Covid-19 pandemic in mind. Which path will mobility take when globalization regresses?